I'm A Believer

Tony's picture

If we go by the forecasts (they are always trueSmile), Moirs could be on tomorrow, Sunday 4th.

The wind is expected to go from W 24kns gust 36kns (44/66kph) Now, down to S 3kns gust 4kns (5/7kph) by Noon Sunday.

So keep an eye on those Forecasts

It's already dropped to a

It's already dropped to a nice easy wispy breath down here with a definite SSW creeping in & bright blue skies - looking out towards those hills out Moirs way I'd say that tomorrow could be a beaut .... 

its a cool 40kt in auck...but

its a cool 40kt in auck...but i believe!! i want to believe!!!

HG at Moirs

Leslie's picture

I'll be there @ mid day.

It ain'y over til its over.

Tony's picture

The good olde RASP (above average confidence) doesn't look great.

Although the wind is in the right range its meant to have an SEasterly component,  over Moirs it looks like its going to be clouded/shaded making it pretty useless as far as thermalling.

But never say never, I'll be checking the forecast first thing tomorrow.

We're watching

Xen's picture

There a re bunch of us watching. So don't be shy to say if you are going up. Fingers crossed.

 

Maybe??

Tony's picture

Sunday 0700

Everything looks good (good base, convergence, not too much cloud dev.) except for Wind direction and speed.

Forecast shows a SE trend and poss. >10kns which won't be great for takeoff and buoyance/shear.

But an early launch might be an idea (< noon?).

Worth a look, yes. But going to check conditions prior to leaving (1030) to make final decision. Wind speed is probably going to be the decider.

It'll be southerly by about

PGlida's picture

It'll be southerly by about 3pm... Take ur branch loppers along with you and trim some of the gorse while ur waiting...

Anyone see any clouds?

Tony's picture

My guess is its too SE and stable to make it worthwhile for me. So that means its going to be Epic for those that make the effort.

Hope you are right. Apparently I have other things to do.

Safe flying.Smile

Moirs

Just had an amazing first flight from Moirs - off and up to cloud base, then made it about 17km - down wind. Really lovely, and lonely - no other PG, only 2 HG who had left and set off before I arrived. Hitched a ride right back to the car! Gotta love the kiwi hospitality :) 

Green with envy.

Tony's picture

I'm glad someone got to fly. Look forward to seeing your track log.

was flyable until sunset

PGlida's picture

was flyable until sunset pretty much.... arrived at 3.30 and was fairly straight in to launch with a bit of a SE shear at about 500'...

 

Moirs

steved's picture

Les & I made it over the Bryndewyns, 2:15pm takeoff, no strong lift but 5500ft cloudbase made for a low stress flight. Highlight of the day, Dennis driving!

Debrief

dennis's picture

3hr 20 timelapse of conditions at http://vimeo.com/37924660 .A SE 'street' formed over the east coast and a very well defined 'street' ran continuously from the Manukau all the way up to the Kaipara from early on. The westerly street gradually broadened and was most likely a convergence effect. The street on the east side probably had some convergence or coastal influence as well.

The HGs took off above the steep edge - too rotory for a PG launch there - some gorse and shrubbery needs to be removed from the left hand side of the point to make it easier in that direction (I might go out on the bike this week and do it one evening).

There was about 15 - 20kph wind on the edge, sometimes less. The wind vane direction is under reading.  At 3pm the wind straightened up and got colder - I suspect sea air coming in from the Kaipara side was the culprit. It gradually blued out from the W - the reason the sky is starting to clear looking N at the end of the sequence. Base was 5200 - 5700 according to Les & Steve. The first climbout was slow and steady - the were on the N side of Kaipara Flat by the time they got to base. Drift was due N.

Chasing them N there was the odd sign of convergence on the East coast, & I suspect they both had the rug pulled from under them once they got N of the Brynderwyns, landing in a light SE.

By 6 it had completely blued out bar a chunk of dying east/west convergence over town.

It was one of the best skies and drift directions I've yet seen at Moirs, for a couple of hours anyway. The late takeoff restricted possible distance but it may not have been soarable before then. They waited till there was good cloud overhead before launching and they started circling up immediately.

Moral: Don't live & die by RASP!

Question for Hangies

Anand's picture

Thanks Dennis for the debrief. where do you guys post your GPS tracks for others  to watch and learn.  I am sure the pilots carry GPS unit on XC flights and must be posting it or submitting it somewhere to be counted for NZ ladder.

Track Logs

steved's picture

I am not aware of an online NZ HG ladder but would be happy to be corrected if it was in the ether. If Airborne is put down the NZ HG XC table may die for an unknown period of time.

Although a track log has never been downloaded from my gauges, I am probably in a minority of 1 in that regard. No doubt there are useful things to be learnt but before doing so I must have assurances that it will not spell an end to my furtile imagination.

Belief

Tony's picture

Thanks for the de-brief. Will file that in my database for future reference.

When you are making decisions about the day you need a baseline to work from. That's what I use RASP for. Along with your analysis and by comparing it to what RASP says "could have" happened I can get some idea of forecast accuracy and the micro detail RASP doesn't give (1 pixel = 3km2).

Track logs are also good for that as well (if/when people post them).

Nothing is as good as sitting/waiting on launch. Something I don't always have time to do.

Both times (1030/1430) I rang the weather station it was SE 140 Min 7 18 29 Max kph, which I must admit influenced my decision making. I have soared Moirs in a SE before and didn't enjoy that, but then if I had got lift straight away it may have been different.

The plus is I hopefully gained some brownie points for next time.Smile

Be careful clearing stuff from the edge, the soil is pretty thin and loose on that steep edge/face and its a long drop. (so we found out when helping Les retrieve something a while back).

I've done the worst of the

dennis's picture

I've done the worst of the gorse at the top and a sizable broadleaf of some description just below the steep edge. It's all regrowth of stuff we chopped back a couple of years ago.

It was SSE on the hill most of the time we were there. Although there was wind on the edge it didn't give the impression on being particularly soarable till Steve found his first core - he was down to takeoff height out front to the left when it happened. SE is too far round - SSE is just about managable though.

We discussed the option of landing in a sloping paddock further up the hill than the beehive one if necessary - up above where the farm buildings are. An uphill slope with a bit more exposure would be better than trying to squeeze into the normal field should the wind be coming from the Puhoi end. I'd certainly pick that should I get round to dragging a glider to launch in the first place.

All I can say is I'm happy

All I can say is I'm happy the fish where biting as I was sitting in the boat watching the sky...

I've slowed the lapse vid

dennis's picture

I've slowed the lapse vid down and added music for all you cloud pornistas out there...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jwi6HiDpv7Q

 

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