Demographic Challenges and Opportunities in the economically marginalized economy


Demographic Challenges and Opportunities in the economically marginalized economy Shraddha Verma Assistant Professor G.C.R.G Memorial Trust Group of Institutions Lucknow  




 This paper discusses emerging demographic patterns and its opportunities and challenges for U.P. Demographic change in India is opening up new economic opportunities. As in many countries, declining infant and child mortality helped to flash lower fertility, effectively resulting in a temporary baby boom. Moreover, changes in population age structure have opened the door to increased prosperity. Uttar Pradesh is the most populous state in India with a population of 199,581,477 million people as of 1 March 2011. If it were a separate country, Uttar Pradesh would be the world's fifth most populous nation, next only to China. Population growth of Uttar Pradesh in 2011 is 20.09%, Sex Ratio is 908 in 2011. Economic and demographic factors reveal important and significant influences Demographics. It presents some opportunities that can arise from having demographic changes, particularly the demographic dividend and interstate migration to overcome labour shortage in some parts. At the same time, there are serious challenges in the form of enhancing human capital development, addressing the issue of tilted sex ratio, and the possible rise in social and political unrest and conflict. Economic growth itself will be correlated to the age structure of the population. In this report we present an in-depth analysis on demographic change and economic growth & the research is exploratory in nature. This paper is based on a limited initial review of the literature and provides a brief summary of the theoretical part of the study. It should be regarded as a research proposal of an ongoing research project and as such it may develop and change in the process. 


 Keywords: transition, literacy, sex-ratio, poverty, population growth. 


 Introduction Demographers refer to these changes from stable population with high fertility and mortality to a new stability in population due to low fertility and mortality patterns as demographic transition. Demographic transition occurs in four phases; of these the first three phases are characterized by population growth. ?In the first phase there is a fall in death rate and improvement in longevity; this leads to population growth. ? In the second phase there is a fall in birth rate but fall is less steep than fall in death rates and consequently there is population growth. ?In the third phase death rates plateau and replacement level of fertility is attained but the population growth continues because of the large size of population in reproductive age group. ?The fourth phase is characterized by fall in birth rate to below replacement level and reduction in the proportion of the population in reproductive age group; as a result of these changes population growth ceases and population stabilizes. ? Experience in some of the developed countries suggest that in some societies even after attainment of stable population there may be a further decline in fertility so that there is a further reduction in the population- so called negative population growth phase of the demographic transition. Different countries in the world have entered the demographic transition at different periods of time; there are also substantial differences in the rate of demographic transition and time taken to achieve population stabilization. ?Uttar Pradesh data 


 Description20112001 Approximate Population19.95 Crore16.62 Crore Actual Population199,581,477166,197,921 Male104,596,41587,565,369 Female94,985,06278,632,552 Population Growth20.09%25.80% Percentage of total Population16.49%16.16% Sex Ratio908898 Child Sex Ratio899942 Density/km2828690 Density/mi22,1461,787 Area km2240,928240,928 Area mi293,02393,023 Total Child Population (0-6 Age)29,728,23531,624,628 Male Population (0-6 Age)15,653,17516,509,033 Female Population (0-6 Age)14,075,06015,115,595 Literacy69.72 %56.27 % Male Literacy79.24 %67.30 % Female Literacy59.26 %43.00 % Total Literate118,423,80575,719,284 Male Literate70,479,19648,901,413 Female Literate47,944,60926,817,871 



 Uttar Pradesh has an economy that is well divided between industrialization and agriculture. At the same time the par capita income rate is also lower than most other states of India. Most of the occupational groups within the population of Uttar Pradesh are involved in agriculture, which contributes to 41 per cent of the state's economy. Unskilled labourers form a major portion of he work force. Skilled labours are sought after in the urban centres of the state which are experiencing a tremendous growth specially in the information technology and the telecommunications sector. However, the level and pace of urbanization has been slow in Uttar Pradesh, compared to other parts of India. Uttar Pradesh, the most populous of all Indian States, is also the fifth largest state in India. The state covers a total area of 243,286 km2 with population density of 792 per km square. The inability to manage the state efficiently as a collective unit, owing to its large area has already resulted into splitting of state on more than one occasion and if the central government gives a nod it will further be divided into four small states. The state at present is divided into 18 divisions which further has 71 districts. 


 The Uttar Pradesh district map by maps of india will help you locate all the districts in the state of Uttar Pradesh. Lakhimpur Kheri is the largest district in the state of Uttar Pradesh and it covers an area of 7680 km2. The district comes under the Lucknow Division of UP which also covers Hardoi , Raebreli, Sitapur and Unnao districts along with the city of Lucknow which is the capital city after 


 Sant Ravidas Nagar located to the South of the state is the smallest district in the state of Uttar Pradesh in terms of area. Allahabad district of Uttar Pradesh is the most populous district in the state. The population of the district at present is approximately 5,959,798. Allahabad is situated to the South of Uttar Pradesh and covers districts of Fatehpur, Kaushambi and Pratapgarh. The districts of Sahranpur and Muzzafarnagar are located to the North of Uttar Pradesh. The districts of Firozabad, Mainpuri and Mathura are located to the East of the state of Uttar Pradesh and falls under Agra Division of the state. Azamgarh Division includes Ballia and Mau districts and is located to the east of the state of uttar Pradesh this is the clear view taken from the census 2011 


 Aligarh Division covers districts like Etah, Mahamaya Nagar and Kanshiram Nagar. Bareilly Division covers District Badaun, District Pilibhit and District Shahjahanpur while District Banda, District Hamirpur and District Mahoba fall under Chitrakoot Division. The Jhansi division of Uttar Pradesh covers districts like Jalaun and Lalitpur which are located to the South West of the state. Also located in the zone is the Lalitpur district which is the district with least population density i.e.194 people per square km. 


 State/UT CodeDistrict CodeState/UTDistrictTotal populationMalesFemales 91Uttar PradeshSaharanpur346422818357401628488 92Uttar PradeshMuzaffarnagar413860521945401944065 93Uttar PradeshBijnor368389619257871758109 94Uttar PradeshMoradabad477313825082992264839 95Uttar PradeshRampur233539812261751109223 96Uttar PradeshJyotiba Phule Nagar1838771964319874452 97Uttar PradeshMeerut344740518291921618213 98Uttar PradeshBaghpat1302156700724601432 99Uttar PradeshGhaziabad466145224818032179649 910Uttar PradeshGautam Buddha Nagar1674714904505770209 911Uttar PradeshBulandshahr349850718486431649864 912Uttar PradeshAligarh367384919585361715313 913Uttar PradeshMahamaya Nagar1565678837446728232 914Uttar PradeshMathura254189413684451173449 915Uttar PradeshAgra438079323561042024689 916Uttar PradeshFirozabad249676113371411159620 917Uttar PradeshMainpuri1847194984892862302 918Uttar PradeshBudaun371273819972421715496 919Uttar PradeshBareilly446534423714542093890 920Uttar PradeshPilibhit20372251078525958700 921Uttar PradeshShahjahanpur300237616101821392194 922Uttar PradeshKheri401363421267821886852 923Uttar PradeshSitapur447444623806662093780 924Uttar PradeshHardoi409138022042641887116 925Uttar PradeshUnnao311059516362951474300 926Uttar PradeshLucknow458845524078972180558 927Uttar PradeshRae Bareli340400417533441650660 928Uttar PradeshFarrukhabad18875771007479880098 929Uttar PradeshKannauj1658005882546775459 930Uttar PradeshEtawah1579160845893733267 931Uttar PradeshAuraiya1372287736144636143 932Uttar PradeshKanpur Dehat1795092964284830808 933Uttar PradeshKanpur Nagar457295124691142103837 934Uttar PradeshJalaun1670718895804774914 935Uttar PradeshJhansi20007551061310939445 936Uttar PradeshLalitpur1218002639392578610 937Uttar PradeshHamirpur1104021593576510445 938Uttar PradeshMahoba876055465937410118 939Uttar PradeshBanda1799541966123833418 940Uttar PradeshChitrakoot990626527101463525 941Uttar PradeshFatehpur263268413855561247128 942Uttar PradeshPratapgarh317375215914801582272 943Uttar PradeshKaushambi1596909838095758814 944Uttar PradeshAllahabad595979831334792826319 945Uttar PradeshBara Banki325798317079511550032 946Uttar PradeshFaizabad246837112584551209916 947Uttar PradeshAmbedkar Nagar239870912142251184484 948Uttar PradeshSultanpur379092219162971874625 949Uttar PradeshBahraich347825718389881639269 950Uttar PradeshShrawasti1114615594318520297 951Uttar PradeshBalrampur214906611179841031082 952Uttar PradeshGonda343138617856291645757 953Uttar PradeshSiddharthnagar255352612960461257480 954Uttar PradeshBasti246105612561581204898 955Uttar PradeshSant Kabir Nagar1714300870547843753 956Uttar PradeshMahrajganj266529213753671289925 957Uttar PradeshGorakhpur443627522817632154512 958Uttar PradeshKushinagar356083018212421739588 959Uttar PradeshDeoria309863715396081559029 960Uttar PradeshAzamgarh461650922893362327173 961Uttar PradeshMau220517011148881090282 962Uttar PradeshBallia322364216675571556085 963Uttar PradeshJaunpur447607222176352258437 964Uttar PradeshGhazipur362272718565841766143 965Uttar PradeshChandauli19527131020789931924 966Uttar PradeshVaranasi368219419286411753553 967Uttar PradeshSant Ravidas Nagar (Bhadohi)1554203797164757039 968Uttar PradeshMirzapur249453313128221181711 969Uttar PradeshSonbhadra1862612973480889132 970Uttar PradeshEtah1761152945157815995 971Uttar PradeshKanshiram Nagar1438156765529672627 90Uttar PradeshTotal19958147710459641594985062 


 In Uttar Pradesh, about 71 districts and cities have been identified as gender critical because here sex ratio is less than 900. Moreover, while in 10 districts, the female literacy rate is less than 30 per cent, in 41 districts, women work participation is less than 20 per cent. In several surveys and past census, it has been noticed that people ?particularly in rural areas ?ignore infants, children and elderly women, while giving details about family composition and work profile during enumeration. o ensure an accurate enumeration of women in Census 2011, special attention is being given to gender sensitisation among the public and enumerators. 


 Objectives ?Identifying current scenario in demographics of U.P. state and districts population in 2011 ?Comparison of U.P. state with other state in respect of demography. ?Reasons for significant fall in the growth rate of population in the U.P. ?Fall in the share of child population: Causes and Consequences ?Identifying Inter-state variations in literacy. ?Bringing out suggestions for exploring growth opportunities in U.P. 


 Top 5 States/UTs Bottom 5 States/UTs 


 Uttar Pradesh 19,95,81,477 Lakshadweep 64,429 Maharashtra 11,23,72,972 Daman & Diu 2,42,911 Bihar 10,38,04,637 D. & N. Haveli 3,42,853 West Bengal 9,13,47,736 A. & N. Islands 3,79,944 Andhra Pradesh 8,46,65,533 Sikkim 6,07,688 


 During 2001-2011, as many as 25 States/UTs with a share of about 85% of the country population registered an annual growth rate of less <a href="">michael kors outlet</a> than 2% as compared to, 15 States/UTs with a share of about 42% during the period 1991-2001and 15 States/UTs have grown by less than 1.5 percent per annum during 2001-2011, while the number of such States/UTs was only 4 during the previous decade. 


 The percentage decadal growth rates of the six most populous States have declined during 2001- 2011 compared to 1991-2001: 


 ?Uttar Pradesh (25.85% to 20.09%) ?Maharashtra (22.73% to 15.99%) ?Bihar (28.62% to 25.07%) ?West Bengal (17.77% to 13.93%) ?Andhra Pradesh (14.59% to 11.10%) ?Madhya Pradesh (24.26% to 20.30%) 


 Now the 2011 census has shown a clear fall, to a decadal growth of 17.6 percent and annual rate of 1.62 percent. In fact, not just the growth rate but the absolute increase has also shown a decline, from 182million during 1991-2001 to 181 million during 2001-11. learly, India trajectory of growth has turned downward though the population trajectory continues to be upward. 


 Trends in population size and growth rate, India, 1901-2011 


 Population prospects With birth rates now falling faster than death rates, growth rate has begun to decline and India has advanced well into this phase of the demographic transition. ndia population will continue to grow for some time overtaking China in 15-20 years but the growth rate is projected to fall further and population growth slow down. ccording to various projections, the size would reach 1.6-1.8 billion in the second half of the century and then begin to decline. Fall in the share of child population he provisional results do not give detailed age distribution of population. However, the size (and hence share) of the population in ages 0-6 is available. he share of the population in ages 0-6 (that is, below seven years) has fallen, from 15.9 percent in 2001 to only 13.1 percent in 2011; such decline occurred between 1991 and 2001 as well. he fall has occurred in almost all the states (Jammu & Kashmir is an exception) but the degree varies. 


 Fall in the share of child population: Causes and Consequences 


 his is clearly a consequence of recent fertility decline. Independent evidences from the Sample Registration System and various surveys also show impressive decline in fertility in all parts of the country, though at varying degrees. Fertility transition is clearly in progress in India.  positive consequence of the fertility decline is that the young age dependency has fallen. Thus couples can devote greater resources including time for each child; the classical quality-quantity trade-off. At the societal level, this means enhanced ability to invest in child development with positive implications in the next generation. n the long run, the share of elderly is bound to rise. But until then, India can harvest the demographic dividend. he window of demographic opportunity has already opened and will remain so for the next few decades; however, given the spatially varied timing of the decline, the dividend would also be staggered. As in virtually all countries, life expectancy at birth in India also differs by sex. In the period 2005-2010, female life expectancy was 65.0 years, and male life expectancy was 62.1 years ?very similar to the differences that are seen in developing countries as a whole and in the world. However, India differs from the world and from developing countries as a whole in the manner in which sex differences in life expectancy have evolved since 1950. In most countries, women lived longer than men in 1950, whereas in India female life expectancy, at 37.1 years, was 1.6 years less than that of men. This differential has reversed in the intervening years. (United Nations, 2009) India demographic changes are also manifest in its age structure. The population pyramids of Figure 5 show the share of population in each age group, separately for males and females. In 1950, India had a very young population, with many children and few elderly; this gave India age distribution a pyramidal shape. Moving forward in time, the base of the population pyramid shrinks as the number of working-age individuals increases relative to children and the elderly. 


 Sex ratio in population 


 ex ratio in India population worsened through the twentieth century, reaching a low of 927 females per 1000 males (or 107.9 M/100F)in 1991. Some improvement was seen in 2001 and the 2011 census shows further rise to 940(106.4 M/100F). This ratio is still more masculine than the global level but has moved in the direction of balance. hree reasons may be stated: 1. Women are no longer disadvantaged in survivalin contrast to the situation some time back, 2. The age structure is changing with share of older ages, where sex ratio favours females, rising, and 3. Selective female under-enumeration has declined. A systematic demographic analysis of age-sex distributions, once these become available, can reveal the relative contributions of these factors. 




 iteracy (measured for population of ages 7 and above) has been rising steadily and the 2011 census shows continuation of the trend, from 65 % in 2001 to 74 % in 2011. hough gender gap persists (82 % for males and 65 % for females),it is narrowing; in the recent period, the improvement in female literacy has been greater than in male literacy. 


 Inter-state variations in literacy 


 he level of literacy varies substantially across states. Literacy is now quite high (over 90 percent) in Kerala, Lakshadweep and Mizoram, and high (80-90 %) in Tripura, Goa, Daman & Diu, Puducherry , Delhi, Chandigarh, Himachal Pradesh, Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, and Nagaland. he level is relatively low (below 70 percent) in Bihar, Arunachal Pradesh, Rajasthan, Jharkhand, Andhra Pradesh, Jammu & Kashmir and Uttar Pradesh. n 2011, the gender gapis found to be high in Rajasthan, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, Dadra & Nagar Haveli, Madhya Pradesh, Jammu & Kashmir, and Bihar. s expected, states with low levels have shown more progress than those with high levels (the latter are approaching universal level and further progress cannot be much). 



 Progress in literacy: low literacy states 





 Interstate differences: 


 The projected values for the total population in different regions is shown in above Figure. There are marked differences between States in size of the population and population growth rates , the time by which replacement level of fertility (TFR of 2.1) is to be achieved and age structure of the population, If the present trend continues, most of the Southern and the Western States are likely to achieve TFR of 2.1 by 2010. Urgent energetic steps to assess and fully meet the unmet needs for maternal and child health (MCH) care and contraception through improvement in availability and access to family welfare services are needed in the States of UP, MP, Rajasthan and Bihar in order to achieve a faster decline in their mortality and fertility rates. The five states of Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Orissa, which constitute 44% of the total population of India in 1996, will constitute 48% of the total population of India in 2016. These states will contribute 55% of the total increase in population of the country during the period 1996-2016 (Figure-below) In all the states performance in the social and economic sector has been poor. The poor performance is the outcome of poverty, illiteracy and poor development which co-exist and reinforce each other. The quality and coverage under health services is poor and the unmet need for FW services is about 30%. Urgent energetic steps are required to be initiated to assess and fully meet the unmet needs for maternal and child health (MCH) care and contraception through improvement in availability and access to family welfare services in the states of UP, MP, Rajasthan and Bihar in order to achieve a faster decline in their mortality and fertility rates. The performance of these states would determine the year and size of the population at which the country achieves population stabilisation. 




 In these States, population growth rates are low. If equitable distribution of the income and benefits generated by development is ensured, substantial increase in per capita income and improvement in quality of life could occur in these States in a relatively short time. In majority of States with high population growth rates, the performance in the social and economic sector has been poor. The poor performance could be the outcome of a variety of factors including paucity of natural, financial or human resources. Poverty, illiteracy and poor development co-exist and aggravate each other. In order to promote equity and reduce disparity between States, special assistance has been provided to the poorly performing States. The benefits accrued from such assistance has to a large extent depended upon: The States' ability to utilise the available funds; improve quality & coverage of services and facilities, increase efficiency and improve performance Community awareness and ability to utilise the available services. In spite of the additional assistance provided, improvement in infrastructure, agriculture and industry have been sub-optimal and the per capita income continues to be low in most of the poorly performing States. These States also have high birth rates and relatively low literacy rates. It is imperative that special efforts are made during the next two decades to break this vicious self perpetuating cycle of poor performance, poor per capita income, poverty, low literacy and high birth rate so that the further widening of disparities between States in terms of per capita income and quality of life is prevented. The higher population growth rates and low per capita income in poorly performing States are likely to have a major impact on several social sector programmes. The health status of the population in these States is poor; the health sector programme will require inputs not only for improving infrastructure and manpower, but also increasing efficiency and improving performance. The Family Welfare Programme has to address the massive task of meeting all the unmet needs for MCH and contraception so that there <a href="">michael kors sydney</a> is a rapid decline in mortality and fertility rates. Due to high birth rate, the number of children requiring schooling will be large. The emphasis in the education sector on primary education is essential to ensure that the resource constraints do not result in an increase in either proportion or number of illiterates. Emphasis on prevocational and vocational training in schools will enable these children to acquire skills through which they will find gainful employment later. 


 The current high population growth rate is due to: ??The large size of the population in the reproductive age-group (estimated contribution 60%); ??Higher fertility due to unmet need for contraception (estimated contribution 20%); and ??High wanted fertility due to prevailing high IMR (estimated contribution about 20%). Rapid reduction in the population growth rate can be achieved by: ??Meeting all the felt-needs for contraception; and ?? Reducing the infant and maternal morbidity and mortality so that there is a reduction in the desired level of fertility. 


 Case of infant mortality ?Four states ?Uttar <a href="">michael kors bags australia</a> Pradesh ?Madhya Pradesh ?Bihar ?Rajasthan ?Account for more than 50% of infant mortality in India ?Four more states account for another 21%, or a cumulative 72% ?Infant deaths are even more concentrated at the district and the village levels. 



 Findings and suggestions: The second significant breakthrough in thinking is often summarized by the phrase ealthier means wealthier.?In other words, health and longevity are very consequential for economic performance. Although macroeconomists and economic policymakers have traditionally viewed population health as a social indicator that improves only after countries become wealthy, new thinking views health itself as an instrument of economic growth, not simply a consequence of it. Health is believed to drive economic growth for four main reasons. First, a healthier workforce is a more productive workforce. Second, healthier children tend to have better records of school attendance, and stay in school longer, ultimately resulting in a more educated workforce. Healthy children also have better cognitive function, and avoid physical and mental disabilities that may be associated with childhood illness. Third, healthy populations have higher savings rates, as people save more in anticipation of longer lives post-retirement. And finally, healthy populations attract foreign direct investment. In recent years, analyses of the proposition that ealthier means wealthier?have abounded, with the vast majority of them concluding that health is a strong driver of economic growth. Recent findings suggest that healthier countries experience faster growth in average income, and that a 10-year gain in life expectancy translates into as much as 1 additional percentage point of annual growth of income per capita. This 1 percent is significant in the context of a world economy in which per capita income typically grows at 2-3 percent per year. This potential 1 percentage point gain is also meaningful, as a 10-year gain in life expectancy is well within the reach of many countries. This gain corresponds roughly with the gap between India ?where life expectancy is currently about 64 years ?and today developed countries, currently at 78 years. It also corresponds roughly to the magnitude of the increase in life expectancy that many demographers project for developed countries in the next four to seven decades. Researchers have also focused on the central importance of health in the alleviation of poverty: the main asset poor people possess is their labor, and the value of that asset is crucially determined by their health. This explains why health figures so prominently in plans to halve the global poverty rate, which has emerged as the central imperative of the entire global development community. Conclusion: There are inter-state variations ( as also intra-state variations) in population growth and in trends in fertility and mortality; some regions are ahead of others in these processes but the general trend is clearly towards falling fertility, mortality, and growth. he imbalance in the child sex ratio showing that sex selection persists is a matter of concern. Indian policymakers will also need to recognize that realization of the demographic dividend depends on an economy capacity to absorb workers into productive employment. This capacity is strengthened by: ?good governance (effective avenues for citizen input, well-functioning institutions, respect for the rule of law, low level of corruption, respect for property rights, sanctity of contracts); ?Efficient infrastructure (reliable roads, railways, telecommunications, water supply, sanitation, and agricultural needs); ?Prudent fiscal and macroeconomic management (policies that keep inflation reasonable, promote inclusive economic growth, avoid severe trade imbalances); ?well-developed and competitive financial markets (institutions that facilitate mobilization of savings, safeguards to ensure that banks and other financial institutions serve the public interest) and labour markets (a negotiated balance of power between employers and workers); and above all, ?Investments in education and training (strength in all levels of schooling for females and males of all income levels and castes, job training for workers to keep up with new types of services and industries). While these are all excellent policies independently of demographics, the stakes are much greater when a large cohort is poised to enter the working ages. Given its high levels of internal heterogeneity, India needs to consider a combination of these approaches and policies to catalyse and speed its demographic transition, and to capture a demographic dividend. For example, some Indian states are in a much better position than others to benefit from demographic change. In some of the poorest states, such as Bihar and Uttar Pradesh, a large portion of the young population is extremely poorly educated and cannot engage productively in the type of work that would provide them a good income and that would help propel India forward economically. For that reason, even as these states experience falling fertility rates and consequently a rising share of working-age people, they are not poised to capture a demographic dividend. The relative contributions of men and women output to economic growth are insufficiently understood. In light of the prospect of increased female participation in the labour force, research might contribute to further understanding of policies that can promote realization of the demographic dividend. 




 Alsan, Marcella, David E. Bloom, and David Canning (2006). he Effect of Population Health on Foreign Direct Investment Inflows to Low- and Middle-Income Countries? World Development, April, Vol. 34, No. 4, 613-630. 


 Population growth- trends, projections, challenges and opportunities 


 Census of India; 5RS, Registrar General of India; amily Welfare Statistics in India, 2006; elected Educational Statistics, 2004?5; ensus of India, Registrar General of IndiaRCW Website; 18tatistics on Women, National Institute of Public Cooperation and Child Development 2007;CRB Website. 


 Deciphering the 2011 Census Results 


 Agell, J., T. Lindh, and H. Ohlsson. 1997. rowth and the public sector: A critical review essay.?European Journal of Political Economy 13(1): 33-52. Aghion, P. and P. Howitt. 1992.  model of growth through creative destruction CENSUS 2011 PROVISIONAL POPULATION TOTALS: 323-351. An, C.-B. and S.-H. Jeon. 2006. emographic change and economic growth: An inverted-U shape relationship.?Economics Letters 92: 447-454. Jones, C. I. 1995. &Dased models of economic growth.?Journal of Political Economy 103: 759-783. 


 The Relationship between Demographic Growth and Economic Change. 


 Census 2011: Provisional Population 


 Data and graphs from , 





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